[Geysers] Old Faithful Dec 21-22 2016 - Consecutive Shorts

[Lynn Stephens]

Also,  I don't think the regression formula has been in use for well over a dozen years.  The values for m and b increased over the years I predicted Old Faithful using the regression chart.  My math intuition tells me at least b has increased and probably both the intercept and slope have increased given the continued increase in average interval since I quit predicting Old Faithful in October 2009, which was a few years after we went substituted the bi-modal prediction model for the regression model.

Even values used in the bi-modal model have increased over the years.

Lynn 

Lynn

Sent from my iPhone

> On Dec 29, 2016, at 06:15, JEFFREY CROSS <jeff.cross at utah.edu> wrote:
> 
> Years ago, someone reported a formula of the form y = mx + b for predicting Old Faithful.
> 
> Y is the interval
> X is the duration
> 
> How has this formula changed from one year to the next?
> 
> Specifically, are the current values of m and b what they always were?  Larger?  Smaller?
> 
> Jeff Cross
> jeff.cross at utah.edu
> 
> 
> ________________________________________
> From: geysers-bounces at lists.wallawalla.edu [geysers-bounces at lists.wallawalla.edu] on behalf of M.A. Bellingham [mabellingham at gmail.com]
> Sent: Monday, December 26, 2016 10:33 AM
> To: Geyser Observation Reports
> Subject: [Geysers] Old Faithful Dec 21-22 2016 - Consecutive Shorts
> 
> From a Facebook report on Dec 22, 2016
> 
> Dave Monteith: "Old Faithful had a 2h14m closed interval last night."
> 
> Dave responded to a question : "The question was asked -- "how
> confident was I that an eruption wasn't missed?" I am very confident.
> The webcam recording clearly shows a non erupting Old Faithful during
> the interval."
> 
> Gordon Bower replied " I am now curious -- when is the last time we
> had a pair of consecutive shorts? Even in the early 90s, when ~40% of
> intervals were short, those were "newsworthy" and happened only a few
> times a season. I can't remember hearing about a pair of them in long,
> long time"
> 
> Gordon then followed up with " A search of the GeyserTimes archive
> suggests it hasn't been witnessed in this century (the data are fairly
> complete since 2000). (There was one apparent instance of consecutive
> mediums, 28 July 2010, 1319E 1433E 1546E - but for some reason no
> human observations are showing up on that date.)"
> 
> I miss the days of substantive discussions on the Listserve, so I
> appreciate Gordon's knowledge-based curiosity, and wanted the
> non-Facebookers to know of these consecutive shorts.  I hope it
> reaches those of you with interest.  The other 15 comments on Facebook
> were mostly just that, comments.
> 
> MA
> 
> M.A. Bellingham
> mabellingham at gmail.com
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