[Geysers] A few notes about Morning

[Tara Cross]

For those thinking of heading to the park for a shot at Morning, this is a quick overview of what's been seen so far since May 22.  This comes from Lynn Stephens, Bill Warnock, and Maureen Edgerton prior to Memorial Day weekend, my own observations over Memorial Day, and descriptions of the last three eruptions from Pat Snyder.

Thus far, it appears that the "window" for Morning is about 8-10 hours after the previous eruption of Fountain.  The four known data points we have for this are 9h23m on May 23, 8h39m on May 25, and 8h32m and 9h00m on May 28.  The other three eruptions are consistent with this as well based on inferred double intervals of Fountain.

As in 2012, longer Fountain durations seemed to be a good sign for Morning.  The four known Fountain eruptions preceding Morning lasted at least 40 minutes.  A long duration did not guarantee a Morning eruption, though.

I tried to be at Morning about 7 hours after the previous Fountain just to be safe.  Then I would watch for water in Morning's Thief.  Based on observations so far, if there was water in Morning's Thief, Morning did not erupt.  If there was no water in Morning's Thief, then Morning had a chance.  When I was watching, the water would generally appear in Morning's Thief 7-8 hours after the previous Fountain.  However, Morning's Thief would not actually erupt until close to the time of Fountain--within a few minutes before or a minute or two after.

Pat Snyder reported to me that prior to the three eruptions on the 28th and 29th, she and others observed heavy convection over Morning's vent in the minutes prior to the eruptions, so there is apparently now a few minutes of warning.

That said, as Lynn pointed out, Morning is still obviously affected by wind.  The eruptions during this recent activity have occurred when there was either no wind or light wind, or a break in the wind.

If you're trying to infer the last eruption of Fountain, note that intervals without Morning have been 9-12.5 hours.  Intervals with an intervening Morning have been longer, with Fountain waiting 3.5-6 hours after Morning to erupt.

Naturally as soon as I write this up, something will change.  But I hope it is helpful, and of course those who have been in the park watching will have the most accurate information.

Good luck everybody!

--Tara Cross
fanandmortar at hotmail.com




 		 	   		   		 	   		  
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