[Geysers] [Fwd: Old Faithful regression formula]

Paul Strasser upperbasin at comcast.net
Mon Nov 20 22:05:15 PST 2006

If it matters, back in the 1976-79 period (when the "10D + 30" formula was
all the rage) and I was occasionally behind the desk we used the "first
continuous water to last continuous water" method, as opposed to "first drop
to last drop" - and under this method, exactly which preplay is considered
the first drop?

Just a'wonderin.

Paul Strasser

-----Original Message-----
From: geysers-bounces at wwc.edu [mailto:geysers-bounces at wwc.edu] On Behalf Of
Tom Kearney
Sent: Monday, November 20, 2006 10:34 AM
To: geysers at wwc.edu
Subject: Re: [Geysers] [Fwd: Old Faithful regression formula]

Lynn:  I know the 5 new people this summer did not wait for the last drop 
from Old Faithful, but in the middle of the summer I told some of them that 
"we always did it that way in the old days."  I don't know if they went on 
to time Old Faithful to the last drop, but I was never trained to do 
otherwise, and I suspect the other "old timers" at the VC still wait for the

last drop.

Carolyn, do you know anything definite about it?

Tom Kearney

"There appears to be no notion too absurd for those who rely upon faith."  
--  Tom Kearney

>From: "Lynn Stephens" <lstephens2006 at hotmail.com>
>Reply-To: geyser observation reports <geysers at wwc.edu>
>To: geysers at wwc.edu
>Subject: Re: [Geysers] [Fwd: Old Faithful regression formula]
>Date: Sun, 19 Nov 2006 18:11:57 -0700
>As Ralph noted, the prediction model is currently a simple prediction model
>rather than a regression model.  Because the staff has not been trained to
>time Old Faithful durations until the last drop of water, I  suspect it is
>no longer possible to generate an accurate regression model using recorded
>intervals and durations from the Old Faithful Visitor Center logbook.
> >From: Udo Freund <gosastore at qnet.com>
> >Reply-To: geyser observation reports <geysers at wwc.edu>
> >To: geyser observation reports <geysers at wwc.edu>
> >CC: tculliso at mines.edu
> >Subject: [Geysers] [Fwd: Old Faithful regression formula]
> >Date: Sun, 19 Nov 2006 07:12:06 -0800
> >
> >To all on the list,
> >Please help Thomas.  I believe predictions are no longer based upon a
> >regression formula, or are they?  As I understand current activity, OF
> >erupts bimodally, shorts are rare and longs are common.
> >
> >Thanks,
> >Udo
> >
> >
> >Hello,
> >
> >I'm currently and undergrad at the Colorado School of Mines, and I'm
> >working on a project that includes creating a simple computational
> >model for geyser behavior.  I'm focusing on Old Faithful, and I was
> >hopping could find the regression formula currently used to predict
> >each subsequent eruption.  I haven't been able to locate the
> >information on the web or in any journals and etc . . .. I'm going to
> >try and introduce some random behavior in the hopes of producing
> >behavior similar to Old Faithfuls, and I'd like to compare my results
> >with the regression model.  My hope is that someone at the GOSA has
> >accesses to this formula and would be willing to share it with me.
> >
> >Thank you,
> >Thomas Cullison
> >Geophysical Engineering
> >Colorado School of Mines
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >_______________________________________________
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