[Geysers] [Fwd: Old Faithful regression formula]

[Tom Kearney]

1995 - present, I've used first continuous water to last drop.

Tom Kearney



>From: "Paul Strasser" <upperbasin at comcast.net>
>Reply-To: geyser observation reports <geysers at wwc.edu>
>To: "'geyser observation reports'" <geysers at wwc.edu>
>Subject: Re: [Geysers] [Fwd: Old Faithful regression formula]
>Date: Mon, 20 Nov 2006 23:05:15 -0700
>
>If it matters, back in the 1976-79 period (when the "10D + 30" formula was
>all the rage) and I was occasionally behind the desk we used the "first
>continuous water to last continuous water" method, as opposed to "first 
>drop
>to last drop" - and under this method, exactly which preplay is considered
>the first drop?
>
>Just a'wonderin.
>
>Paul Strasser
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: geysers-bounces at wwc.edu [mailto:geysers-bounces at wwc.edu] On Behalf Of
>Tom Kearney
>Sent: Monday, November 20, 2006 10:34 AM
>To: geysers at wwc.edu
>Subject: Re: [Geysers] [Fwd: Old Faithful regression formula]
>
>Lynn:  I know the 5 new people this summer did not wait for the last drop
>from Old Faithful, but in the middle of the summer I told some of them that
>"we always did it that way in the old days."  I don't know if they went on
>to time Old Faithful to the last drop, but I was never trained to do
>otherwise, and I suspect the other "old timers" at the VC still wait for 
>the
>
>last drop.
>
>Carolyn, do you know anything definite about it?
>
>Tom Kearney
>
>
>"There appears to be no notion too absurd for those who rely upon faith."
>--  Tom Kearney
>
>
>
>
>
> >From: "Lynn Stephens" <lstephens2006 at hotmail.com>
> >Reply-To: geyser observation reports <geysers at wwc.edu>
> >To: geysers at wwc.edu
> >Subject: Re: [Geysers] [Fwd: Old Faithful regression formula]
> >Date: Sun, 19 Nov 2006 18:11:57 -0700
> >
> >As Ralph noted, the prediction model is currently a simple prediction 
>model
> >rather than a regression model.  Because the staff has not been trained 
>to
> >time Old Faithful durations until the last drop of water, I  suspect it 
>is
> >no longer possible to generate an accurate regression model using 
>recorded
> >intervals and durations from the Old Faithful Visitor Center logbook.
> >
> >
> > >From: Udo Freund <gosastore at qnet.com>
> > >Reply-To: geyser observation reports <geysers at wwc.edu>
> > >To: geyser observation reports <geysers at wwc.edu>
> > >CC: tculliso at mines.edu
> > >Subject: [Geysers] [Fwd: Old Faithful regression formula]
> > >Date: Sun, 19 Nov 2006 07:12:06 -0800
> > >
> > >To all on the list,
> > >Please help Thomas.  I believe predictions are no longer based upon a
> > >regression formula, or are they?  As I understand current activity, OF
> > >erupts bimodally, shorts are rare and longs are common.
> > >
> > >Thanks,
> > >Udo
> > >
> > >
> > >Hello,
> > >
> > >I'm currently and undergrad at the Colorado School of Mines, and I'm
> > >working on a project that includes creating a simple computational
> > >model for geyser behavior.  I'm focusing on Old Faithful, and I was
> > >hopping could find the regression formula currently used to predict
> > >each subsequent eruption.  I haven't been able to locate the
> > >information on the web or in any journals and etc . . .. I'm going to
> > >try and introduce some random behavior in the hopes of producing
> > >behavior similar to Old Faithfuls, and I'd like to compare my results
> > >with the regression model.  My hope is that someone at the GOSA has
> > >accesses to this formula and would be willing to share it with me.
> > >
> > >Thank you,
> > >Thomas Cullison
> > >Geophysical Engineering
> > >Colorado School of Mines
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >_______________________________________________
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> > >Geysers at wwc.edu
> > >https://mailman.wwc.edu/mailman/listinfo/geysers
> >
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