[Geysers] [Fwd: Old Faithful regression formula]

[Ralph Taylor]

Old Faithful is currently predicted using 92 minutes for long duration (>4
minutes) and 65 minutes for short duration (<2 minutes) eruptions.
Intermediate durations are predicted at, I think, 80 minutes (I'm going from
memory on the intermediate and could be wrong).

The data for Old Faithful intervals is on the web at 

http://www.geyserstudy.org/geysers/OLDFAITHFUL/eruptions/Old%20Faithful%20er
uptions%20for%202006.TXT

Several graphs are shown at

 http://www.geyserstudy.org/geyser.aspx?pGeyserNo=OLDFAITHFUL

This information is derived from electronic monitors and does not include
durations, which we cannot determine from the electronic record.

For an example of a geyser that is predictable based on previous eruption
duration, see http://www.geyserstudy.org/geyser.aspx?pGeyserNo=SPOUTER

You can email me off-list if you have more questions.

Ralph Taylor
-----Original Message-----
From: geysers-bounces at wwc.edu [mailto:geysers-bounces at wwc.edu] On Behalf Of
Udo Freund
Sent: Sunday, November 19, 2006 10:12
To: geyser observation reports
Cc: tculliso at mines.edu
Subject: [Geysers] [Fwd: Old Faithful regression formula]


To all on the list,
Please help Thomas.  I believe predictions are no longer based upon a 
regression formula, or are they?  As I understand current activity, OF 
erupts bimodally, shorts are rare and longs are common.

Thanks,
Udo


Hello,

I'm currently and undergrad at the Colorado School of Mines, and I'm  
working on a project that includes creating a simple computational  
model for geyser behavior.  I'm focusing on Old Faithful, and I was  
hopping could find the regression formula currently used to predict  
each subsequent eruption.  I haven't been able to locate the  
information on the web or in any journals and etc . . .. I'm going to  
try and introduce some random behavior in the hopes of producing  
behavior similar to Old Faithfuls, and I'd like to compare my results  
with the regression model.  My hope is that someone at the GOSA has  
accesses to this formula and would be willing to share it with me.

Thank you,
Thomas Cullison
Geophysical Engineering
Colorado School of Mines





_______________________________________________
Geysers mailing list
Geysers at wwc.edu https://mailman.wwc.edu/mailman/listinfo/geysers