[Geysers] Old Faithful Dec 21-22 2016 - Consecutive Shorts

[JEFFREY CROSS]

Years ago, someone reported a formula of the form y = mx + b for predicting Old Faithful.

Y is the interval
X is the duration

How has this formula changed from one year to the next?

Specifically, are the current values of m and b what they always were?  Larger?  Smaller?

Jeff Cross
jeff.cross at utah.edu


________________________________________
From: geysers-bounces at lists.wallawalla.edu [geysers-bounces at lists.wallawalla.edu] on behalf of M.A. Bellingham [mabellingham at gmail.com]
Sent: Monday, December 26, 2016 10:33 AM
To: Geyser Observation Reports
Subject: [Geysers] Old Faithful Dec 21-22 2016 - Consecutive Shorts

>From a Facebook report on Dec 22, 2016

Dave Monteith: "Old Faithful had a 2h14m closed interval last night."

Dave responded to a question : "The question was asked -- "how
confident was I that an eruption wasn't missed?" I am very confident.
The webcam recording clearly shows a non erupting Old Faithful during
the interval."

Gordon Bower replied " I am now curious -- when is the last time we
had a pair of consecutive shorts? Even in the early 90s, when ~40% of
intervals were short, those were "newsworthy" and happened only a few
times a season. I can't remember hearing about a pair of them in long,
long time"

Gordon then followed up with " A search of the GeyserTimes archive
suggests it hasn't been witnessed in this century (the data are fairly
complete since 2000). (There was one apparent instance of consecutive
mediums, 28 July 2010, 1319E 1433E 1546E - but for some reason no
human observations are showing up on that date.)"

I miss the days of substantive discussions on the Listserve, so I
appreciate Gordon's knowledge-based curiosity, and wanted the
non-Facebookers to know of these consecutive shorts.  I hope it
reaches those of you with interest.  The other 15 comments on Facebook
were mostly just that, comments.

MA

M.A. Bellingham
mabellingham at gmail.com
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