[Geysers] Beehive and Cascade in 1998

[Lynn Stephens]

THIS POST IS FOR THE PERSONAL USE OF THE READERS OF THIS LISTSERV AND IS NOT TO BE REPRODUCED FOR ANY OTHER PURPOSE, INCLUDING PUBLICATION IN THE SPUT.  (I will put together a more complete report for The Sput.)
 
I read once that I lurk on the Old Faithful webcam chat page under the guise of a "number."  Not true--my internet connection at home doesn't allow me to connect to the webpage itself, and, besides, I've hardly been home since early March, and this weekend I will leave until early May.
 
I do, however, periodically read the chat page archives.  Yesterday I noticed some discussion about the relationship between Beehive and Cascade in 1998 and a comment that it would be nice if Beehive data for 1998 were available.  Beehive was not electronically monitored in 1998.  However, the electronic version of the logbook maintained in the Old Faithful Visitor Center is available on the GOSA website.  Although the file presents the data on a daily basis, it is easy to sort by geyser.
 
Information about Beehive and Cascade Geyser is available in the Sputs for that year.  In 1998 the "Current Geyser Activity" was presented in two formats.  I periodically compiled and irregularly published summary statistics (mean interval, range, comments, number of observations) in table format.  Genean compiled reports from the listserv as the "Current Geyser Activity" column for each issue.
 
Summary of activity in 1998--There was an eruption of Giantess and a small earthquake overnight 1/8-1/9/1998.  At that time, Beehive intervals were about 10-15 hours.  After a dormancy of a decade, Cascade was first observed on 1/9.(Activation had also recurred in response to earthquakes in 1959 and 1983, for example.)  Cascade's intervals were quite short--in the 6-7 minute range.  I published an article "Some Comments on 'Summary of Geyser Activity' and Effect of 1/9/1998 Earthquake and Giantess Eruption" in the April 1998 issue where I noted geysers that apparently had changes in activity related to the 1/9 earthquake and/or the 1/9 Giantess eruption included Little Cub, Lion, Cascade, Plate, Vault, Plume, and Old Faithful.  Note that the data available for analysis did not indicate that events of 1/9 had impacted Beehive's activity.  Neither did examination of data for the next few months.
 
Throughout the winter and spring Cascade's intervals gradually lengthened.  By Memorial Day weekend some intervals were still as short as 20 minutes, but intervals of several hours also occurred.  Beehive was still erupting "with great regularity" with intervals of about 8 to 13 hours.
 
In June and July Cascade erupted "less frequently with fewer series".  Beehive was still erupting twice a day in June.  But then, for about two weeks in mid-late July, Beehive's Indicator started erupting independently, and Beehive became irregular until July 28-29 when Beehive again started erupting about twice a day.  The fix was only temporary however.  False Indicators "were the rule" in August and September, and Beehive was irregular, at best.  In August Cascade was erupting infrequently--about one or twice a day although sometimes not at all.
 
Beehive remained irregular through mid-October, when it returned to intervals of about 10-20 hours.  Only two eruptions of Cascade were reported in September and the last eruption of Cascade was reported in October.
 
Although Beehive's return to intervals of about 10-20 hours coincided with Cascade's return to dormancy in mid-October, I don't believe there is a direct connection between the two events.  Rather, in my opinion, changes in Beehive's activity are connected to changes in activity of Beehive's Indicator.  Beehive's activity did not change from January through mid-July when Cascade was erupting frequently.  Beehive's activity did not change until Beehive's Indicator started erupting independently in mid-July.  The connection between changes in Beehive's activity and independent eruptions of Beehive's Indicator (otherwise known as "false" indicators) has been observed during many summer-early fall seasons when Cascade was not active.  (See my article about Beehive's Indicator in GOSA Transactions Volume XII, 2012.)  
 
I used to teach a graduate level course in decision making and the case of Beehive/Cascade in 1998 could be used to demonstrate at least two of the common decision making traps involving the (mis)use of data.  ☺
 
Lynn Stephens
 
 
 
 
 		 	   		  
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