[Geysers] Morning Geyser

[Lynn Stephens]

THIS POST IS FOR THE PERSONAL USE OF THE READERS OF THE LISTSERV AND IS NOT TO BE REPRODUCED FOR ANY OTEHR PURPOSE, INCLUDING PUBLICATION IN THE SPUT OR TRANSACTIONS.  Dependiing on the deadline for the October Sput, I will prepare a more complete analysis and article for either the October or December (more likely given my schedule the next few weeks) issues of the Sput.  
 
Just a couple tidbits about Morning Geyser's activity this summer based on my trips to the park:
 
1.  Known time from various events to next event:
     
      Concerted to Fountain--6h02m and 7h15m.  
      Concerted to Morning solo--as short as 4h52m
      I don't believe there we have any Morning to Morning solo events.
 
      Limited data is available from dual/trifecta to the next event.
 
      Morning solo to Fountain--as short as 1h29m to probably as long as 7h40m with a median of about 4h25m.
      Morning solo  to concerted--as short as 3h32m.
      Morning  solo to Morning solo--possibly 11h54m and 12h01m.  HOWEVER, given the Morning solo to Fountain interval of 1h29m, this could have been a Morning solo to Fountain to Morning solo.
 
       Fountain to Morning solo--Varies from 8h28m to 10h50m with median of 9h
       Fountain to Concerted--Varies from 8h24m to 10h13m with median of 9h34m.  
 
       Since I did these calculations by hand in the geyser basins, and sometime used the Fountain start of concerted eruptions to compute intervals, these numbers are subject to change once I have had a chance to double check them, but these give a rough approximation.
 
      Thanks to Steve Robinson for giving me a printout from geysertimes with both Fountain and Morning data.  It was a lot easier to use than flipping back and forth between the individual printouts I had generated about August 15.
 
2.  Does a Morning's Thief eruption kill the chance of getting an eruption of Morning on the next window?  
     NO, see for example the 8/23 eruption of Morning at 1332 that was preceded by a Fountain eruption at 0433 with a Morning's Thief eruption at 0442.
 
3.  Fountain durations--In May, when we first started getting data on preceding Fountain eruptions and eruptions of Morning, when data was available, eruptions of Morning were preceded by eruptions of Fountain with durations of at least 40 minutes.  Then the "required" Fountain duration dropped.  The shortest known duration preceding an eruption of Morning, to date is 33m20s.
    But a Fountain eruption with a duration of at least 40 minutes did NOT guarantee an eruption of Morning on the next window.  At first pass through the data, by hand, in the geyser basins, 1/3 of the >=40 minute Fountain durations were followed by an unknown event, 1/3 were followed by another eruption of Fountain, and 1/3 were followed by an eruption of Morning, either a solo or a concerted eruption.  
 
   I was in and out of the Park several times from May 17 until I left yesterday (September 11).  I haven't recomputed my ratio of Fountain eruptions to Morning eruptions since the 9/3 trifecta, when the ratio was right at 5 to 1.  The ratio is now at least 5 1/2 to 1 since I saw a lot of Fountain eruptions following the 9/3 trifecta, and Morning decided to continue to extend the interval from trifecta to next Morning eruption and didn't erupt again before I had to leave.  However, as several people have noted, at least there's always a reward for Morning waits.  Even if you don't get Morning, you get Fountain.  My final Fountain eruption of 2013 on the afternoon of September 11 was beautiful.
 
Lynn Stephens
 
 		 	   		  
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