[Geysers] Morning hypotheses

[Chris Daubert]

Well, I'm really busy this time of year and haven't kept up with all the e-mails, but I'll throw in a little bit here, since I visited in June to see Morning and only got to see 12 Fountains instead.   I arrived about 6 hours prior to the 6/23 2103 eruption of Fountain that had a duration of 45 minutes and left about 10 hours after the 6/29 0029 eruption of Fountain that had a duration of 44 minutes.  During that week there were three Fountain interval longer than 12 hours, only two of which were significantly longer than 12 hours. 6/24 0800 to 6/24 2213 was an interval of 1413... I only left the Lower Basin for a couple of hours immediately following the 0800 eruption - according to my notes I was back by 1100.  Besides, in the first couple days of my visit there were plenty of people besides me, keeping watch - I think Dee was probably there all day on the 24th, so NO MORNING on 6/24 despite the long interval. 6/25 0906 to 6/25 2116 was an interval of 1210... After the morning Fountain my notes indicate I left and returned to the Lower Basin just prior to 6 hours after the morning eruption began.  I went to Great Fountain and stayed for the eruption at 1552, watching for steam from across the road.  So, while it would have been possible for me to have missed a Morning, it isn't probable - it would have needed to erupt well before the 6 hour mark post Fountain for me to have missed it. 6/27 0400ie (according to my notes (later recorded 0352E), which was about a 9 hour interval, catching me napping (probably literally, despite what people think)) to 6/27 1652 was a 1252 interval... After the 0400ie ended at 0437 I went to the Upper Basin until Beehive at 0758 and then returned to the Lower Basin by about 5 hours post Fountain.  Again, Morning would have needed to have been well under 6 hours post Fountain in order for me to have missed it. So here there were three long(ish) intervals of Fountain that I'm fairly certain didn't include a Morning eruption... the long interval I worry about was during my July visit and caught Fountain while driving back from a hike on 7/15 at 2217ie.  Since I knew that eruption, I went back to see Fountain in the morning (7/16) and had to wait until 1121.  13+ hour interval with 6-7.5 hours post Fountain coming around 4-530 the next morning - a Morning in this interval I find probable and just my luck. Chris 
 From: fanandmortar at hotmail.com
To: geysers at lists.wallawalla.edu
Date: Sat, 17 Nov 2012 15:50:07 -0700
Subject: Re: [Geysers] Morning hypotheses




Scott Bryan asks who is going to shoot down his hypotheses.  Well, I like to 
think of it more as presenting things from a different angle.  The 
following comments deal specifically with mid June through September 2012.

As
 Scott pointed out, known Morning eruptions were usually associated with
 longer intervals of Fountain.  But we also know that there was a clear 
relationship between the duration of Fountain and the succeeding 
interval, and that wind could also be a factor in lengthening Fountain's intervals.

Thanks
 to the electronic data, we now have durations for 5 of the Fountain 
eruptions that preceded Morning (and a probable 6th instance).  These 
durations (3 visual, 3 electronic) were all long--46, 46, 47, 49, 49, and 50 minutes.  One would expect a longer Fountain interval in those cases, whether Morning erupted or not.

I have attached the scatterplot I made using visual data from May 18 through September 19 that shows that Fountain's intervals were related to the previous duration.  I have not had time to make a new scatterplot reflecting electronic data, but for now I think this is sufficient.  The known instances of intervals with an intervening Morning eruption are shown with red triangles.  They all had long durations, but the intervals do not appear abnormal when compared to the rest of the data.

Similarly, all of the long intervals on Scott's list between July 4 and September 11 came after Fountain durations of at least 43 minutes.  Per Lynn Stephens, Morning did not erupt on July 4 and 5 and August 30.  I can add that Morning did not erupt during its "window" on September 10.  So a long duration did not indicate that Morning would erupt (though based on the data points we have, it increased the chances). 

I was personally present at Fountain for the 
aftermath of 5 Morning eruptions (hey, at least I actually saw one of 
them), and between what I saw and what Maureen Edgerton observed on 
other occasions, there were four main indications that Morning had 
erupted:

1) Low water or no water visible in Fountain as it entered its window
2)
 Very late or no Morning's Thief activity before Fountain ("late" here 
defined as 90 minutes or fewer before Fountain, as opposed to the more 
usual 2-4 hours)
3) Relatively short time between the start of 
Fountain and the start of Twig (10 to 25 minutes as opposed to the more 
usual 32 to 37 minutes)
4) Rocks being thrown during Fountain's eruption

Based
 on this, I am hesitant to hypothesize that Morning erupted on occasions
 when experienced observers saw no evidence prior to or during 
Fountain.  Since most of the Fountains in question were seen by either 
myself, Lynn Stephens, or Maureen Edgerton, this narrows the list considerably.  However, as far as I know, July 20, August 14, and August 31 are unaccounted for.

Scott's
 list also doesn't include a probable eruption in the early morning hours of August 13 that was 
inferred based on a late Morning's Thief start, early Twig, and a lot of
 water in Morning's runoff channel.  I have attached a table showing the known and probable eruptions of Morning with notes from either myself or Maureen on Fountain's subsequent behavior.

--Tara Cross
fanandmortar at hotmail.com





From: TSBryan at aol.com
Date: Tue, 13 Nov 2012 15:44:46 -0500
To: geysers at lists.wallawalla.edu
Subject: [Geysers] Morning hypotheses






Hi, All. With thanks again to Jake and Will, here is a little 
something the proves I have too much idle time on my hands. See the attached 
PDF.
 
Looking that the data for Fountain Geyser, as posted by Jake, a number of 
curious things can be see when that data is merged with known Morning Geyser 
eruption episodes. And a lot can be inferred/hypothesized.
 
We know that this summer (2012), most Fountain intervals were in the range 
of 9 to 12 hours. Longer intervals (especially though not exclusively any longer 
than 13 hours) deserve attention. With just two exceptions (one being the 
Fountain-Morning dual eruption of October 30), all Morning eruptions were 
associated with Fountain intervals longer than 12 hours.
 
So we look at the Fountain data. It is easy to find Fountain-Fountain 

intervals near or longer than 13 hours. Were any of these "caused" by Morning 
erupting during that interval? Probably so, I think.
 
Consider also the known intervals from the last Fountain before Morning to 
Morning. Here excepting only that dual event, these intervals were: 6h 00m, 7h 
26m, 7h23m, 7h 04m, 7h 00m, and 7h 03m. (Interestingly consistent, yes?) 
 
OK, so look, for example, at July 20, 2012. Fountain erupted at 0714. 
Another Fountain would not have been anticipated until after 1600 at the 
earliest and probably closer to 1800. So, was anybody (gazer, that is) out there 
looking at, say, 1400? Likely not. Did Morning erupt then? Maybe so, though 
we'll probably never know.
 
Jake apparently did not know about the second eruption on October 30, but 
based on durations inferred in the electronic data, he also hypothesized an 
eruption on October 22, as I did using the long interval.
 
By the way, per my hypotheses in the PDF, the Morning to Morning intervals 
in rounded-off days are really quite similar to such intervals noted by Marler 
in the 1940s and 1950s.
 
Now who is going to shoot this down? (Hi, Maureen!) I anticipate that some 
of this will be annihilated, but maybe not all.
 
Scott Bryan
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