[Geysers] A few observations, 6/9/12-6/14/12

[Lynn Stephens]

Thanks for the report Bill.  Re:  oddness and comment about Great Fountain eruptions outside the predicted window.  Assuming the prediction window is 12 hours +/- 2 hours, or even if it is 12 1/4 +/- 2 hours, there have been 5 closed intervals since May 28 that were outside the window:   Intervals on the short side:June 2, 0827, closed interval of 9h28mJune 12, 0220E, closed interval of 8h38m, if the afternoon prediction was made without knowing the overnight electronic time, then the afternoon prediction would have been 1742 +/-2 hours, putting the 1451 eruption outside the early side of the window. Intervals on the long side:May 28, eruption at 2116, closed interval of 16h02m (duration of preceding eruption was seven bursts, 94 minutes)June 6, eruption at 0544,  closed interval of 14h59m (duration of preceding eruption was six bursts, for 69 minutes)June 10, eruption at 0703,  closed interval of 15h49m
June 13, eruption at 1924, double interval of  28h44m, putting the evening eruption outside the end of the window. Six predictions outside the window out of 41 intervals is 15% of the predictions outside the window.   However, there is no interval-based window that would have resulted in fewer errors.  (12 1/2 and 12 3/4 hours both cause one additional eruption to go on the short side of the window as well as at least one of the double interval that was 20h33m.) Usiing 13 hours +/- 2 hours adds one more eruption on the short side of the window while eliminating one eruption on the long side of the window.)  In both cases where the preceding duration was known, adjusting the interval based on duration of preceding eruption resulted in a window that captured both of the eruptions that occurred outside the long side of the interval-based prediction. Lynn Stephens  Date: Sat, 16 Jun 2012 19:19:41 -0600
From: canbelto at gmail.com
To: Geysers at lists.wallawalla.edu
Subject: [Geysers] A few observations, 6/9/12-6/14/12

I was able to make a quick trip to the park this week and am finally able to write a few things up on it -- net access was poor while I was there.  I assume that others with more comprehensive times than I will write full reports, but a few things on the margins:



Norris was VERY quiet on 6/9.  In Porcelain Basin nothing was happening except along the fissure behind the big steam vent; no Arsenic, no Constant, not even a Fireball in the half morning that I watched.  Back Basin was also quiet (nothing from the Pearls, etc.), but I did get a single closed interval on Vixen: 1126 (h=10', d=25 seconds) and 1235 (h=20', d=55 seconds).  The second eruption was sort of a "mini-major" in height and duration, but did not come close to wetting down the trail.  Conditions were nasty enough (snow) that I didn't stay for a second closed interval.



Some small oddness from Great Fountain: several eruptions were outside the predicted windows, first a very early one at 1451(? -- I missed it) on 6/12, then a long one overnight (electronic) followed by an evening event on 6/13 at 1922 (P11; Maureen Edgerton, I believe, called it 1924/P9) well past the end of the nominal window.  Again, others will have more complete times.



Finally, two nice 3-burst Grands (6/12 1508 and 6/13 1237), each with minor interesting quirks; the first one didn't start until nearly 4 minutes after a Turban start, and the second one began while West Triplet was active.  Again, others with more complete records will have more on these.



As Jim S reported, we sat through a real live event cycle at Fan and Mortar on 6/14.  Even though it didn't culminate in an eruption, it sure felt good to be watching something other than garbage play there, and it felt every bit as good to see the excitement it was inducing in the other gazers.



I will report such other times as I have if nobody else gets to them in a day or two, now that I'm back home with net access again.  As always, many thanks to Jim, Barbara Lasseter, Bob and Emily, Jere Bush, Bill Warnock, Maureen, and others for making this "beginning-to-intermediate" gazer feel at home and helping me learn some things.



-- Bill Johnson


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