[Geysers] Geyser report 14-15 Jul 12

[Lynn Stephens]

On July 16, Gordon Bower asked:
 
> Those of you who worked with the interval vs. duration formula for Great Fountain, how long of an eruption does it take to cause a 16+ hour interval?

On Monday May 28 this year, Great Fountain had an eruption with a duration of 94 minutes (seven bursts although the seventh burst lasted only four minutes).  The succeeding interval was 16h02m.  (See my report to the listserv for May 28, 2012.) I think the last time I published a prediction model based on number of bursts was in the October 2007 issue of The Sput. Although the sample size for 2012 is much smaller than it was in 2007, the model seemed to about the same as it was in 2007, except that the 2012 model includes a 14-hour prediction for a weak 6th burst and a 16 hour prediction for a 7th burst.              2007                                                                      2012 ( smaller sample size)    3 burst eruption = 10 hours                                                    9 to 10 hours    weak 4th burst =  11 hours                                                   11 hours    strong 4th burst, weak 5th burst = 12 hours                            12 hours    5th burst = 13 hours                                                             13 hours    weak 6th burst                                                                     14 hours    (strong) 6th burst = 15 hours                                                15 hours    strong 7th burst                                                                   16 hours Weak bursts are ones that last only 3-4 minutes, and usually have longer pauses between the individual bursts in that series.  Strong bursts usually last 6-7 minutes with fewer pauses between the individual jets. Lynn Stephens    		 	   		  
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