[Geysers] Collection 4-8 Jun 07 (Archives gap)

[Carlton Cross]

Here's the collection covering the archives gap 4-8 Jun 07.  I didn't get
the dates since that was something of a nuisance.  Those who do not put
names at the end of a message are anonymous.

Carlton Cross
Moderator


Pat Snyder asked

>On Friday night, just before dark, Bronze Spring (Geyser Hill) was  
>boiling vigorously and overflowing into a channel that ran down the  
>hill to the river. See picture below. Not long after we approached  
>it, it stopped and drained considerably.

>I have never seen Bronze Spring do this before. Is this typical  
>behavior for it?

While not exactly typical, this kind of intermittent overflow and boiling
without actually erupting is not uncommon for Bronze Spring.  It can do
anything from slight overflow then drop to a full eruption reaching more
than 2 meters.

Ralph Taylor

___


   This is typical behavior for Bronze at one extreme of the Geyser Hill
cycle.  Little Squirt often starts within a day or so of when Bronze starts
having these vigorous intermittent overflows.  When it's active as a
geyser, instead of just boiling, Bronze also has wide bursts to five or ten
feet with each overflow. 

David Schwarz


The link will take you to my set of Giant photos.  If you have Flash
installed, you can view it as a nice slide show.  On dial-up?  Just open
the photos that seem interesting to you.

I have really only just started processing my Giant eruption photos.  I
probably shot at least 6GB during those two eruptions.  So there may be
more additions in the near future.  There are also a few photos from a
Mastiff Solo last year just to try to illustrate what a hot period is like.
 If you read my descriptions, remember that my audience is not a set of
geyser gazing geeks.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/geysergary/sets/72157600289667450/

Gary Novak
g.novak at gte.net 

Hello Pat (and all),

Interesting, I've seen Bronze Spring boil, overflow, and later drop but
this sounds stronger than I've seen in the past.  However, when I look at
your picture it appears there are new rocks in and beside the overflow
channel; at least I haven't noticed them there before.  Could it be that a
stronger eruption tossed some ejecta out of Bronze Spring?  It will be
interesting to hear others thoughts about this.

Stephen Eide

First heard it on Minnesota Public Radio and found this at abcnews.com

MOSCOW (Reuters) - A powerful mudslide has destroyed Eurasia's only geyser
valley in the remote Kamchatka peninsula in Russia's Far East, RIA news
agency reported on Sunday quoting local sources. 

"A torrent of mud, trees, snow and stones covered two-thirds of this unique
nature park," RIA quoted an unnamed witness as saying. Twenty five tourists
and personnel were evacuated from the area, it said.

...

"The biggest springs may still come through the debris but most of the
others are probably lost forever," RIA quoted an unnamed scientist at a
local institute as saying.

The whole article can be read here
http//abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory?id=3239982

-Karl Hoppe


Fascinating how much difference there is on the list. Seems the experience
is more subjective than you'd think...

I can't comment on Steamboat (not that there's any question) Splendid and
Africa. Here is where my take differs from the rest of the consensus

I rank pre-explosion Porkchop above Beehive. I am a bit surprised by how
quiet people think Castle is. I think it's much deeper-throated than
Beehive, but only a little bit quieter. (Not to mention, Beehive is at its
loudest at around the 3-minute mark, while it's still mostly water - it
quiets right down when the water runs out... it's a loud geyser sound but a
hairsplitter might kick it off the list of steam phases entirely.)

I wonder if I've just had bad luck with Mortar. Its steam phase hardly made
any impression on me at all... more just, well, 'part of the eruption,'
louder than Riverside but below almost everything else on this list. Being
down in a hole makes it hard to hear at a distance, too.  Lone Star - the
cannon bit is news to me. It's audible at some distance (I recall running
the last quarter mile of the trail, my first time there, after hearing the
steam phase) but not at any great distance, even in that 
completely noise-free areaI've seen but never heard several eruptions from
the hill above Buried.
Clepsydra - again, loudest when it's half-erupting, with loud chuffs as a
fresh blast of steam shoots up through water pouring back down into the vent.
Nobody mentioning Lion? Roars aren't really steam phases - the best of
those are on par with Lone Star/Clepsydra, and can be heard from Castle and
the Inn balcony. The end-of-eruption steam phase is quieter.

GRB

__
Although I was in for quite a while today, rather little of that was spent
in the UGB and I was mostly looking at litle things. So this will be
somewhat brief.
 
This morning, Grotto was ie marathon at 0730. Although Grotto was reported
to have started an eruption at 17xx last evening, I don't think that was
the same as this morning's eruption. Looking at water levels (GIP,
Variable, Marathon, Spa), my guesstimate was that Grotto had only been in
eruption for 6 or 7 hours at that 0730 time. It quit sometime between 0815
and 0930. Supporting that it was a short, mini-marathon is the fact that a
"recovery" hot period took place at 1306 (so, roughly 4 hours after Grotto
quit)... Anyhow, although that hot period lasted 8m 46s (thanks for the
calls Heinrich) and there was some pretty good surging in Mastiff, there
was no eruption.
 
Having thoroughly decided that the unnamed geyser beyond Opalescent at
Black Sand Basin would never agin have a jetting eruption, I saw one today.
Per the descriptions and photos, it was considerably less potent than those
seen in early May, but in nevertheless did jet angled streams up to 10 or
12 feet for a duration of about 2 minutes.
 
At Biscuit, the conditions at the Silver Globes look worse and worse. Just
about zero action.
 
I saw a ranger downloading the Great Fountain monitor today, and I'll look
forward to seeing if that geyser has been erupting with little variation or
has been alternating longs and shorts. But today was a long. Great Fountain
was at 1739 last evening, but not until 0900 (exactly) today -- interval
15h 21m. This followed a false overflow at 0655; the time the true overflow
started is not known.
 
Gemini was back to full (I think, mid-cycle) action today. I caught a
couple of single eruptions early, then had it at 1431, 1440 (d = 51s), 1449
(48s), 1458 (48s), and 1508 (50s). Those are, of course, whole minute
times; the longest interval here was actually only 9m 18s.
 
Fountain continues to erupt at about 6 1/2 to 7 hours. It was at 0942 today
(d = 35m). It was accompanied by three eruptions of Morning's Thief, one of
which probably reached 40 feet.
 
Scott BryanNo doubt some of you have "Googled" the mudslide in Kamchatka's
Valley of Geysers (as I have)... but a couple of things
 
1. Having been there and having a sense of the Valley's layout, I have to
think that buried are such features as Velikan, Zhemchuzhnyi, Malikitovyi
Grot, and many more; and if the slide is in fact "tens of meters" deep,
then it is likely that the Vitrozh (with Fontan, etc.) is gone too. This
would be a tremendous loss.
   On the other hand, the reports say that the slide is 1.5 kilometers
long. This implies that the geysers in the downstream part of the basin --
Troynoi, Sakharnyi, Pervenets -- may have survived. We sure can hope so.
 
2. So far, I have not been able to locate any photo or video. I'll keep
looking, but if any of you come across such, I'd sure appreciate the link(s).
 
Scott BryanGary - beautiful photos. 

Some of the info in your comments is not correct, like "For example, if
Grotto Geyser is erupting, then Giant cannot erupt."  That's not the case at
all.  Yes, one of Giant's best windows for an eruption is the time 8-12
hours after the end of a Grotto marathon, and Grotto is typically not i.e.
during that time.  But other "windows" for an eruption don't necessarily
coincide with Grotto not erupting.  

Again, beautiful photographs, and thanks for sharing them.

Paul Strasser

--
There are now many news reports from Russia about this event.

Judging from the estimated thickness of deposit (60 metres) the very 
substantial dam blocking the river might take some time to be 
overtopped or broken through by the lake now accumulating on the 
upstream side.  If/when it does fail there is likely to be a lahar 
like the one that developed when Crater Lake at Mt Ruapehu, New 
Zealand, broke through on 19 March this year.  I read also that many 
of the geysers were being submerged by the rising water rather than 
having been actually blocked under the landslide.  Depending on the 
length of time that the lake takes to break through, there could well 
be significant hydrothermal eruptions following the sudden pressure 
drop if the lake empties suddenly.  Certainly I would expect that 
many of the features would erupt as a result, but some of the 
eruptions might well be sufficiently violent to destroy the delicate 
sinter deposits that have formed around the vents.  It is of course 
alternatively possible that the dam is sufficiently thick and 
resistant to erode only slowly and the presently-forming lake could 
become a long-lasting feature.  One thing that is sure is that the 
hydrothermal energy is still there and even if many of the previously 
existing features have been destroyed others will form. This could 
take much less time than one might expect, judging from how quickly 
this happened around and near Rotomahana lake after the 1886 volcanic 
eruption in New Zealand.
Ron Keam

Thank you everyone for the information about Bronze Spring!

As an additional note, there was a small "pool" of water near the  
vent for Little Squirt when we saw Bronze overflow. Looked like  
Little Squirt had been sputting or bubbling. It had not been in  
recent eruption, to our knowledge.

Sorry, Stephen, I can't respond about the ejecta, I'd never really  
looked at Bronze before. Maybe someone else can? I do have a larger  
resolution version of the picture, if anyone wants to see it.

Thanks again.

Pat Snyder


A question for Paul and others

You say here that Gary's "if Grotto Geyser is erupting, then Giant 
cannot erupt" is not correct. However, it seems to me that during a 
Grotto *marathon* Giant never erupts. Have you ever known of a time 
when Giant erupted during a Grotto marathon?

Janet Chapple



Here is the first article to mention specific geysers as being not covered by 
mud or water by name

http//vn.vladnews.ru/issue572/Special_reports/Landslide_corks_Kamchatkas_Val
ley_of_Geysers

Quote

According to the scientists, the blanketing of the geysers by the landslide 
will inevitably result in a rising level of subsoil waters, which are 
responsible for the regular functioning of the geysers. Although a few of the 
valley’s most popular geysers, such as Velikan, Maliy and Bolshoy, remain 
above the landslide’s level, the behavior of their water blasts will change, 
specialists say.

End quote.

Jeff Cross
jacross at lamar.colostate.edu


   I can't recall what year, but I think in the '90s there was at least one
eruption of Giant fairly well into a marathon--5 or 8 hours or so.  I
definitely remember some very powerful hot periods in '97 several hours
into a Grotto.  You're really not safe until Bijou is good and dead--and
then after the marathon, Giant can have a strong hot period even before
Bijou has recovered. 

   Also, if you want to get technical, Giant has erupted near the start of
many marathons.  In '97, it was practically conventional wisdom that if
Giant started during Grotto or vice versa, the Grotto eruption would be a
marathon. 

David SchwarzThis event makes Scott Bryan's video all the more valuable as
historic
documentation of how Kamchatka looked in 1991.  If anyone's interested
the GOSA Store can make that video available as a separate item again.
Please email gosastore at qnet.com for details.

Thanks,
Udo Freund



Yep.  Giant can erupt during the early hours of a Grotto marathon.  Giant
has erupted a couple hours into what turned out to be a Grotto marathon.
The first time this happened to me was on September 12, 1988.  I also know
that Giant has erupted 4 to 5 hours into a Grotto marathon.  There are
several hard luck stories of gazers, including myself, who have missed
eruptions of Giant because they thought they were far enough into a
marathon to be "safe" to leave the Upper Geyser Basin.  

Lynn Stephens



> A question for Paul and others
> 
> You say here that Gary's "if Grotto Geyser is erupting, then Giant 
> cannot erupt" is not correct. However, it seems to me that during a 
> Grotto *marathon* Giant never erupts. Have you ever known of a time 
> when Giant erupted during a Grotto marathon?
> 
> Janet Chapple

 
Clearly, this piece of misinformation has been passed around to the point
that it needs to be corrected.
 
While it is true that it is UNLIKELY for Giant to erupt once Grotto has
committed to a marathon (that is, Grotto has been in eruption for 5-6 hours
and Spa is active), I believe that historically, Giant has erupted as much
as 10 or more hours after the start of a marathon (I don't have the
specific statistics).  During the current active phase, eruptions at any
point during a Grotto marathon have been unusual; however, a notable
exception occurred on January 3, when according to the electronic monitor
data, Giant erupted about 6 hours into a Grotto marathon.  Even when Grotto
appears to be going into marathon, it is important to keep tabs on Giant's
hot period activity.  If there has not been a strong hot period in many
hours, it is still possible for Giant to erupt.
 
It is also important to note that there is a pattern of behavior in which
Giant is has a good chance of erupting during a Grotto marathon.  It has
not been common during the current active phase, but 3 times during 2004,
Giant erupted 2-3 hours after the start of a Grotto eruption that turned
out to be a marathon.  This pattern occurs when a marathon is overdue to
occur (in other words, after 7 or 8 or more non-marathon Grotto eruptions)
and there has not been a strong hot period for 6-8 hours prior to the start
of Grotto.
 
There IS a general rule of thumb that the longer a marathon progresses, the
less likely it is for Giant to erupt.  But an important thing to remember
here is that Giant cannot be written off easily (never say never with
Giant).  When the "Giant experts" say it's "safe" to leave Giant during a
marathon, it's not JUST because Grotto is erupting; it's because, in their
judgment, Giant does not have enough energy in its system to erupt until
the recovery or beyond.
 
--Tara Cross
fanandmortar at hotmail.com
Just to allay concerns, I have added some weasel words to my descriptions.
I should probably point out that in both cases in which I mentioned Grotto
and Giant in the same breath, I did mention Grotto's marathons in the next
sentence.  That said, I have no clear idea of what Giant does or doesn't do
historically other than what is in The Geysers of Yellowstone.
 
So what about Fan and Mortar today?  Any info?
 
Gary Novak
g.novak at gte.netJanet - 

Heed what Tara, Lynn, et al. have said.  Two dates spring to mind July 12
2003.  We missed Giant because it was already 3.5 hours into a marathon. We
saw a sunset Great Ftn instead.  IMO a VERY poor trade-off.

Aug 2, 2004.  Nearly the exact same scenario as 2003. Every gazer in the
park who could make it to the cage saw Giant.  And it started about 3 hours
into a Marathon.  We learned our lesson from 2003.

And please note - the original statement from Gary said nothing about
marathons.  It was basically - if Grotto is erupting, Giant won't.  We've
already established that this isn't true with Marathons.  What about regular
Grotto eruptions, those 2-3 hour eruptions that occur between marathons?

Same thing applies.  Giant has erupted many times during one of these types
of eruptions.  My point was - his statement is wrong.  It doesn't diminish
from the beauty of his photos, though.  I'd just like someone who uses the
Geyser Gary moniker to provide accurate information.  That's one reason this
community is here.  

(Like when about 20 people laughed in my face for mis-stating the start of
Oblong as, uh, that M geyser on Giant's platform... At least that was a
self-correcting boo-boo)

Paul Strasser



Here is a photograph of the landslide.

http//news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/06/070605-geyser-valley.html

Jeff Cross
jacross at lamar.colostate.edu


The big news, likely already sent out, is that FAN & MORTAR erupted this
morning. Per the marker, which was still in place yesterday morning, this
is the first eruption since August 2005 (in fact, August 5, I believe?).
Here's my tale.
 
I arrived at Old Faithful lower station shortly before 0700. I talked to
Vicky Whitledge and Alan Moose for a few minutes, learning that Grotto was
in marathon and that Grand was in mid-cycle, but I decided to stroll out at
least as far as Crested Pool, just to see whatever I'd see.
 
What I saw upon approaching Castle was a big steam cloud that I briefly
took to be Riverside. The time was 0710. I quickly realized that it was
much too far to the left. At Crested Pool, I saw that the steam cloud was
beyond Grotto. Oooo. Possibly Link? No, it has lasted far too long. Spa?
No, too long and too steady. What else. Well, before I got to Sawmill the
steam cloud nearly vanished. But a minute or so later it was back, and this
time I'm pretty sure I saw water. Well, to make it short, I got down there
to confirm. The last bit of water jetting was at 0731. Thus, I estimate
that the eruption began somewhere around 0640-0645. The splash zone
extended about 10 feet beyond the jugwalk.
 
Made my day.
 
Yes, Grotto in marathon. This eruption started sometime between 2100 and
2330 last night. It was still in progress at 1330 this afternoon.
 
Oblong was at 0732ns and 1039.
 
Daisy at 0754, 1046ie and 1316ie.
 
Grand was 0209E and 0843 (G1--).
 
Castle was 2355E and 1331.
 
There were a couple of Lions that I didn't write down, but that series
ended with a minor at 1019.
 
And wow, I saw two Aurums today0849 and 1309.
 
Big news item #2. Beehive yesterday was at about 1420 (minutes after I left
the basin) and had no Indicator. Today The Indicator started at 1304,
following numerous big splashes over the preceeding 15 minutes or so.
Beehive followed at 1312... Little Squirt had been active all morning but I
noticed that it had stopped sometime shortly before 1300... While
approaching the Beehive Overlook, I saw a splash from what must have been
Bronze Spring.
 
Big news item #3 (to me, anyhow). After leaving the UGB and spending a bit
of time at Gemini (minors from the cone vent, so probably early in a
cycle), I drove around toward Pink Cone just in time to see Labial at 1414.
But then, for the first time I've seen in several years, there was a
second, full eruption at 1423. At 1431 and again at 1440 it really tried
hard for additional eruptions but could muster nothing more than frequent,
big splashes.
 
Per the steam cloud, Narcissus had another one of those short (aborted)
eruptions, as the duration was decidedly less than 2 minutes. This was as
viewed from Gemini, at 1353.
 
Notecurrent weather forecasts have this area under a winter storm _warning_
starting tomorrow morning. The KWYS radio guy said 6 to 12 inches of snow
above 6,000 feet; Bozeman guy says 12 to 18 inches above 6,000 feet, with
an additional 12 to 18 inches on Thursday. Today's actual high, 69;
tomorrow's forecast, 43. Oh, boy.
 
Scott Bryan


Many thanks to those who provided links to stories -- and especially to
photos -- about the landslide in the Valley of Geysers. To determine the
layout, the best photo by far is in the National Geographic item, located
athttp//news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/06/070605-geyser-valley.html
The top photo shows Malyi Geyser (a very nice photo, indeed). Another
article shows Maly [sic] in what the caption says was its last eruption
before being inundated by the water backing up behind the dam.
 
That statement combined with the lower photo clears it all up. The slide
took place downstream from the "main area", and therefore might well have
reached as far as Troynoi. Most definitely, Conus Krustalnyi is under the
slide, for example. Of more concern, the slide is said to be 60 meters
thick. Call it 200 feet. OK, so the slide did not bury Velikan and Tschell,
or even Malyi and Bolshoi. But the lake forming behind the dam sure will
(or probably already has). And it seems to me that that depth is likely
sufficient to reach the top of the Vitrazh. (Put all together, this is
worse that I thought.)
 
By the way, that lower photo clearly shows the boardwalk trails that
lead/led into the valley, as an inverted Y-shape (peace symbol without the
circle). The trail at the top led downward from the helipad area (as of
1991), and then split into, that to the right leading more directly into
the valley, that to the left across a flat and around to eventually join
the other at the top of the long stairway that dropped past Tschell Geyser.
This all being so, then Malyi is just out of the bottom center of the photo.
 
Ah, well.
 
Scott Bryan


Ralph Taylor and David Schwarz-------

So is this behavior by Bronze Spring typical? Or not typical?

Lee Whittlesey


   Typical, provided Bronze, Silver and Little Squirt are near (but not
post) S-Max.  That is, most days, you won't see it, but most seasons,
you'll see it quite a bit.  I don't spend much time on Geyser Hill in
general, but I noticed it almost every summer I spent in the park during
the '90s, after someone (I think David Goldberg) pointed it out to me.
Even if I didn't actually see an overflow, I'd see the wet runoff channels
and well-below-overflow pool at some point, which was sufficient evidence
to conclude intermittent overflows were happening.  It escapes notice a lot
because unless Bronze is actually erupting, you have to be standing pretty
close to see it, and the overflows are only a few (maybe 10 or 20?) seconds
long, separated by intervals of minutes. 

   The intensity of activity during the overflow varies a lot from active
phase to active phase--sometimes it's just a rolling boil, sometimes little
a foot-high splashes, and sometimes it's substantial bursts.  For anyone
wondering what those look like, there are a few pictures from 2001
herehttp//www.cs.rice.edu/~dschwarz/bronzepictures.html.

David Schwarz


_I would characterize it as common but not typical, in that not every season
sees the activity and even in seasons when Bronze Spring is active not every
Little Squirt cycle results in activity.  Certainly not unusual for Bronze
Spring, but one cannot expect to see this activity on a short visit to
Geyser Hill.

Ralph Taylor
A number of months ago i found a copy of "Valley of Geysers" , the book 
about Kamchatka at the website http//www.avachabay.com/

The book is quite good with numerous great photos-
I just checked the web site and the book is still  listed as being for sale. 
It is absolutely worth buying-



Allan FriedmanScott,
    Thank you for all the geyser reports.
    Thank you also for the report on Fan & Mortar.  Last eruption was
August 8, 2005 709 with five gazers present for the eruption. 
    Thank you also for the report on Labial.  It's been many years since I
saw a second full burst, although I've seen some of the 4-5 feet attempts.

Lynn Stephens
 

I'm sending this to the list as I think others will be interested.
 
When Lake Ohakuri (excuse me if I have incorrect spellings here, and most
of my New Zealand stuff is in Arizona) filled at Orakei Korako, there were
numerous impressive eruptions. But they ended, of course, when the springs
were inundated. The questions that arise could be several (and perhaps
there is no answer to some), but just two points here
 
1. Given the passage of years since the lake was formed, what is the status
of those geyser vents beneath Lake Ohakuri. Are they still relatively open,
or have they been filled (and likely choked) with sediment? If filled, are
they believed to be permanently sealed?
     The point here is that the Geizernaya is a muddy stream, especially at
this time of the year. Anything inundated by the lake is apt to accumulate
a lot of sediment and debris in a hurry. So even if the new lake was to
drain quickly (which I doubt, since the dam evidently contains much more
than just mud)...
 
2. Even should the debris dam be removed in short order, is there any hope
for the springs that were buried by the mudflow?
    In Yellowstone, we seem to have examples of formerly vigorous geysers
that are now extinct(?) due to having their vents filled with relatively
small amounts of sediment. Most notable, I think, is Gibbon Hill Geyser,
filled with such a small amount of landslide debris that the sinter rim of
the crater is still visible in spots. There, it is only _perhaps_ (in my
opinion) that the energy and water was _partially_ diverted to nearby
"Phoenix Geyser." I say perhaps because Phoenix was active at least in the
1920s when Gibbon Hill was also active; and "partially" because Phoenix
discharges very much less volume than did Gibbon Hill. But in spite of
this, Gibbon Hill has shown no sign of recovery in 18 years of burial.
    If 2 or 3 feet can do the job, how about 60 meters?!
 
Scott Bryan


A more recent article appeared today at
 
http//www.kommersant.com/p-10845/r_530/Kamchatka_Geyser_Valley/
 
A quote from it follows
 
A few geysers, including the biggest Velikan (the Giant), are outside the
flood zone. “If the valley could be saved, we will take all actions,” the
minister assured. 
 
Let's hope all is not lost.
___________________


o flog this dead horse with a longer whip, I have attached a graph that 
contains a historical summary (1997-2006) of known Giant start times, 
obtained from Scott's list, paired with the known preceding Grotto start 
and end times, obtained from the electronic logs compiled by Ralph 
Taylor and others. The Grotto-to-Giant interval, defined as the time 
between the start of Grotto and the start of Giant is plotted as a 
function of the duration (active phase) of the preceding Grotto. This 
divides the data into three regimesa tightly clustered, unstructured 
group (Group 1) at short Grotto durations (~ < 2 h) near the origin; a 
structured group (Group 2), that has a strongly linear behavior for long 
Grotto durations (> 8 h); and an unstructured set of points (Group 3) in 
the bottom middle that correspond to Giant eruptions that started after 
Grotto and which subsequently entered into a marathon. The lower 
solid-black line drawn in the graph shows where Grotto-to-Giant 
intervals would fall in the plot if they all occurred exactly at the end 
the active phase of the preceding Grotto eruption. No eruption start 
times fall on this line but a red line drawn exactly parallel to it, but 
offset by 9 h, reasonably fits the Group 2 intervals. The upper 
solid-black line shows a least-squares fit drawn through Group 2. Group 
2 eruptions of Giant are ‘recovery hot period’ Giants and the 9-h window 
after the end of a Grotto marathon is an established ‘good’ window for 
Giant geyser. What is probably less well understood, but very clear from 
the good fit of the parallel red line, is the near independence of this 
window with the length of the marathon duration. Few of the Group 1 
Giant eruptions fall on or nearby the 9-h line; instead they tend to 
fall much closer to the end of Grotto's active phase indicated by the 
black line. The Group 3 Giant eruptions can be viewed as part of Group 1 
but are those Giants that started while Grotto was erupting and forced 
Grotto to marathon causing this subset to be displaced to longer times. 
Finally, the Group 3 data suggests that going to Great Fountain 3.5 h 
into a Grotto would be an interesting bet, but one that you would win 
most of the time.

KeyThe solid and open black circles are "recovery" Giants from 2005 
and 2006. The green and dark blue circles are "non-recovery Giants" from 
the same years. Other colors are for the years 1997, 2000-2004 for which 
there are far fewer accurately known Grotto and Giant times.

Hope this is of some amusement,

Tom Magnera

(Graph not available in this format.)


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I don't want to belabor this topic, but it has come to my attention that I
need to clarify a couple things that I said (or didn't say) about the
relationship between Giant and Grotto.  I know this post is really long,
but you can skip the trip down memory lane to the September 12, 1988
eruption of Giant, especially if you're already familiar with the story.

My post of 6/5/07 said "The first time this happened to me was on September
12, 1988...There are several hard luck stories of gazers, including myself,
who have missed eruptions of Giant because they thought they were far
enough into a marathon to be 'safe' to leave the Upper Geyser Basin."

When I said "the first time this happened to me", I should have indicated
that I did see all of the eruption of Giant on 9/12/88.  At that time there
were "preferred windows" for hot periods and 2 hours after the start of
Grotto was not one of those preferred windows.  But we didn't have any
"rule" saying Giant could or could not erupt during a Grotto eruption.
Frankly, we didn't have any rules because we didn't enough experience with
Giant hot periods or eruptions to have any "rules."  I admit that I got
lucky with that eruption because I hadn't put in much time at all that
summer watching Giant (although I did do one 40+ hour sit on Riverside &
Grotto because they kept starting concurrent eruptions of each other).  For
those of you who weren't gazers back then, Mary Ann Moss had the most
experience watching Giant hot periods at that time.  (I believe her first
report for Rick was written based on observations in the fall of 1986.)  I
had been watching other features in August and early September.  But once
the fire storm of Friday, September 9 burned me out of Artemisia, I joined
Mary Ann at Giant that weekend so I could start learning more about Giant
hot periods and so we would each have company in the basin.  (Again, for
those of you who don't know, visitor lodging closed at Old Faithful at 10
am on Wednesday, September 7 due to the fires and had not yet reopened.
Because we were signed up as official NPS volunteers through Rick
Hutchinson, he had made alternative arrangements for us to stay at Old
Faithful, even during the time the area was closed to visitors, which
didn't happen until about 4 pm on Wednesday.  I don't remember the exact
date the Old Faithful area was repoened to visitors, but the Visitor Center
was open on September 12 so the area had reopened but with no lodging,
there weren't many, if any, visitors out in the basin the evening of
September 12.)

Monday, September 12, was a dull, drizzly, dreary, chilly day.  Late in the
afternoon Grotto started an eruption.  MaryAnn went in to her van due to
the weather conditions.  I stayed out to see if there was going to be
another Oblong in the series (yes, Oblong erupted in series that season,
and has erupted in series in other seasons also) and/or if there was going
to be an eruption of Rocket with the Grotto eruption.  I saw the hot period
from the start, saw a full eruption of Mastiff, and saw Giant instead of
Rocket.  Without my notes or the articles I wrote, I don't remember whether
I saw another eruption of Oblong or not.  (A blow-by-blow account of the
eruption was printed in the first volume of the Transactions.)  Later one
gazer said he thought I wasn't a very good observer because there were lots
of questions like "What was this vent doing?" "When did this start or end?"
 etc. that I frankly couldn't answer.  Later, after seeing his first
eruption of Giant when people were asking him the same types of questions
and he couldn't answer them, he basically apologized to me, saying words to
the effect "There's just so much going on that you can't really notice
everything."  Besides when it's your first eruption of GIANT, you want to
watch GIANT, not all the other vents.  I wanted to enjoy GIANT, not be a
detached observer recording lots of little details.  (Even today I still
want to watch Giant and don't even try to record when Feather stops,
restarts, etc., etc., etc.  Besides there are also those video cameras
taking time-stamped pictures, so I don't have to take notes!)

So much for my trip down memory lane back to my first eruption of Giant.

The other point I want to reiterate is something that both Paul and I said
in our posts (although we used slightly different words).  Yes, we have
left the Giant area at some point into a Grotto marathon thinking we were
safe, only to learn that we had missed an eruption of Giant.  But, please
read what we said exactly, because that's exactly what we meant

I said "because they thought they were far enough into a marathon to be
'safe' to leave the Upper Geyser Basin."
Paul said "We missed Giant because it was already 3.5 hours into a marathon."

Neither one of us said we left "because Giant can't erupt during a Grotto
marathon."  We said we left "because we thought we were far enough into the
marathon."  There's a big difference between those two concepts or "rules."
  We knew Giant could erupt during a Grotto marathon.  We thought we had
learned how to gauge the level of energy in Giant's platform, but learned
otherwise, so we subsequently adjusted our decision models, as Paul
indicated when he said "We larned our lesson from 2003."  Note the lesson
we learned was not "Giant can erupt during a Grotto marathon."  We already
knew that.  The lesson we learned was gauging how far into a marathon it is
before Giant "no longer has the energy to erupt."  And even now you will
hear us say, "I think we're probably safe because I think the engery has
shifted away from Giant, but after all, it is a geyser, and it'll do what
it wants."  Lynn's favorite phrase--"But it's a geyser.  So it'll do what
it wants."

As a side note, and editorial comment In my case, I would have left on July
12, 2003, anyway because I was nearing the end of the string of 51
consecutive Great Fountain start to finish eruptions that I was working on
to build a regression model for predicting Great Fountain.  (Yes, I know
there's a formula in Scott's book.  But it was based on a small sample
size, and it needed to be updated to reflect the current conditions.)  To
me the reward of a possible Giant eruption (remember in July 2003 it had
been 15 months since the last eruption of Giant so the probability of Giant
erupting was very low) was not worth having to start over on the string of
51 consecutive Great Fountain eruptions that had started about June 20--I
don't have my notes here at the moment so don't know the exact date.  I do
know I was nearing the end of the string, had already had to start over
once in June, and wasn't going to run even the slightest risk of having to
start over again.  I've missed plenty of eruptions of Giant because I was
out of the Upper Geyser Basin working on other geyser projects, or even
because I had decided to take a vacation from the geysers (July 15, 2004
when I went to the farthest corner of the park with lodging but no geysers
only to hear about that day's eruption from another visitor staying at
Roosevelt), or decided to put family first, and know it will probably
happen again this summer.   Even geyser gazers don't always have the same
priorities or agendas.

Lynn



A link to the ongoing mudslide situation

http//www.kommersant.com/p-10845/r_530/Kamchatka_Geyser_Valley/

Jeff Cross
jacross at lamar.colostate.edu

Thanks Michael for reporting all the details.  I have only a couple of
points to add.

On the 23rd in the 1416 hot period (which was the best one all day) Cave
boiled but didn't have enough energy to erupt.  This was the hot period
where Feather tried to restart but barely got up off the platform.
In addition to the depth charging and vigorous Bijou eruptions for over 24
hours there was a lot of volume in the angled splashes in Giants cone.  I
know we don't usually think much of the angled splashes but this time the
volume of water in them was a lot more than I am used to seeing.
Interestingly the splashing in Giant declined in the last few hours leading
to the eruption but the Mastiff depth charging and strong Bijou continued.

As noted below, the eruption hot period did not look like anything special
until Feather restarted.  India was not flooded, Giant had done no surging
and I could not see any activity in Cave which was quite easy to see given
the wind.  The only distinguishing thing was that it stopped after 7m20s
which was the longest hot period I had seen that week.  I noted the duration
in my notebook and called 'the end of the hot period' on the radio only to
look back at the afterplay and see Feather right back up at full height (no
wimpy restart attempt this time) and was Giant sloshing water out the front!

Duration was 95 minutes.

This is the first time I have stayed out all night to watch any geyser and
ended up seeing 21 hot periods, 2 bathtubs, 1 pause, and 1 slowdown in about
25 hours of observation with only a couple of breaks after the 'stronger'
hot periods.  But the payoff was worth it with a moderate breeze clearing
the steam and a pink sunrise for the background.  Seeing it erupt on the 6th
hot period on the 24th at 532 in the morning gives you an idea of how busy
Giant was all night long.  Those of you that know my early morning schedule
will realize that I could have easily slept in and caught the eruption but
it is nice to have seen all the activity on the platform.  Andy Townsend got
it just right arriving at Giant about 5 minutes before the eruption hot
period started to see his first Giant eruption, congratulations Andy.

Go Giant (and F&M now too)!

Graham.

I had a tour today (8 hours driving in rain and snow), so my only item is
thisAs of 1330, the Grotto marathon that had started between 2100 and 2330
on Monday was still underway. That's a duration of at least 38 hours and
counting... Stay tuned!
 
The weather forecast was somewhat revised as the day went along. It now
says heavy snow warning from 1800 today through 1200 tomorrow (Thursday), 8
to 12 inches of snow above 7,000 feet.
 
Scott Bryan


Here is my thought, on moving mud.

First, how do you get the equipment there?   75 mile from the nearest dirt
road and 190 mile from the nearest town.

Wait, maybe they aready have some of the equipment there.   In one article
I read, all of the building and 2 out of 3 landing pads were destroyed.

I only knew of 1 WWII metal landing pad,  1 building, and 2 outhouses.
Would anyone like to bet that somebody might be building a large Hotel on
top of this mountain.   Best view of the Valley was on the very Muddy Hill
above the old lodge and landing area, were some of us camped in 1991 and
1996.   At both visit the groups were asked about tourist coming to visit
and how they would like to have more tourist.  Which would mean more
tourist dollars for somebody.

Of course just my thoughts, I'm very broken hearted about the slide and the
distruction, as I had planed on going again in the future.

Any one else have any thoughts.

Bob Colvin

 

Lake Ohakuri was filled in January and February 1961.  Ted Lloyd and 
I spent some time monitoring the changes caused in the Orakeikorako 
hydrothermal system during this interval, and the observations are 
written up in Ted's bulletin "Geology and Hot Springs of 
Orakeikorako" which was New Zealand Geological Survey Bulletin 85, 
1972.

1.  Recently, when Mighty River Power, the State Owned Enterprise 
which has the responsibility of running the hydroelectric stations on 
the Waikato River, applied for consents to continue its operations, I 
was involved in the review process.  I realised that the raising and 
lowering of lake level during operation of the river flow to produce 
power could potentially induce hydrothermal eruptions.  Without going 
into all the detail I will summarise by saying that Mighty River 
Power has agreed to fund monitoring for expected small events beneath 
the lake surface.  I have had a research student, Alan Lucas, working 
on the monitoring for about the past twelve months and he is now 
writing up his thesis.  He has recorded events both on an array of 
hydrophones in Lake Ohakuri and on an array of geophones/seismographs 
situated on the land around.  We recognised that the chance of a 
large event was small (thankfully), but it has turned out that small 
disturbances were actually quite numerous.  There is no doubt that 
hydrothermal system vents beneath the lake are very active.  How the 
active vent locations are related to pre-flooding feature locations 
is not yet determined, but when the study is completed we should know 
which among the old vents are still intermittently discharging.  One 
thing certain is that there is indeed intermittent discharging 
occurring (remember the paper in GOSA Transactions about 
"Crypto-geysers").

2.  Most water-dominated hydrothermal systems in New Zealand are 
believed to involve water circulation to the depth of 2 to 5 
kilometres.  The convection in such a system is driven (of course) by 
the difference in density between hot and cold water columns, and if 
the rising hot water were able to be confined laterally it would rise 
perhaps 300 to 400 metres before reaching an equilibrium level 
balancing the pressure of the cold water at the base of the 
convective circulation cell.  Raising the discharge location of the 
vents by, say, 60 metres would be quite insufficient to quench the 
convection, and indeed would reduce the total discharge by at most 
20%.  The water that fed the buried features therefore will continue 
to discharge with perhaps some slight reduction in volume.  Either 
the continuing discharge will soon will start doing so through the 
superimposed material or else it will be partly or completely 
diverted to join the continuing discharges from springs, geysers etc 
that have not been buried (but might be submerged beneath the rising 
lake).

In the Gibbon Hill case that Scott mentions, I can say that the TOTAL 
discharge from the particular geothermal system of which the Gibbon 
Hill activities are a part would have changed extremely little.  The 
previous discharge must have been diverted elsewhere (and such 
diversion could involve lateral underground flow for quite large 
distances).

In the above rather simplified presentation I have concentrated on 
large scale effects, and ignored the effects of changing 
precipitation and changing depth to water table.  There are all sorts 
of complications also from there sometimes being substantial changes 
of steam volume underground where water is replaced by or replaces 
steam (and this applies repeatedly in the case of geysers).  Also 
heterogeneity in the geological formations hosting a hydrothermal 
system can sometimes be very important.

Ron Keam


Per the VC Giant erupted sometime overnight.  Nobody was present for the
eruption due to awful weather. 

Based on the length and timing of the marathon, it s reasonable conclude it
erupted between 0000 at 0400 on the 7th, with a greater likelihood in the
latter part of that time frame.

Paul Strasser



That long Grotto marathon finally ended at a reported 1410 yesterday
(Wednesday) afternoon, after a duration of not less than 38h 40m (and
likely 1 to 2 hours longer than that). So it would have been disappointing,
to say the least, had Giant not erupted. Of course, we could have wished
for daylight but 0333 will do. A recovery of 13h 23m. Mastiff function,
with Mastiff at about 0331. Interval 6d 17h 54m. Heinrich and Andrew
(Bunning?) were there.
 
Grand was at 0346E and 1140.
 
Daisy 0704 and 0952.
 
Castle at 1123ns was a major.
 
Aurum was seen at 0719, Lion initial at 0726.
 
Jere rerported Fountain as ie at 0730.
 
Great Fountain was an empty hole at 0630 and appeared to be dropping from a
possible false overflow at about 1200.
 
Pink Cone was in early eruption at 1450 yesterday. Today I went out to
catch it and found it already well into an eruption at 0850, so there's an
interval of well under 18h.
 
At 1210, there was a wolf crossing the open area from near Pink Cone going
toward Great Fountain. It then turned into the woods near Mushroom Pool.
 
All for today. Home early to get the badly needed haircut, do laundry
(badly needed, too) and et cetera.
 
Scott Bryan


There is an eyewitness account of the eruption at 0333, including the hot
period preceding the eruption, posted on HK's blog.

_

>The Group 3 Giant eruptions can be viewed as part of Group 1 but are those
Giants that started while >Grotto was erupting and forced Grotto to
marathon causing this subset to be displaced to longer times.
 
An open question to Tom or anyone else Is there statistical or
observational evidence that Giant actually *forces* Grotto to marathon?
 
I've had this chicken-or-egg discussion with people a number of times, and
I keep coming back to two things that make me uncomfortable with assuming
that Giant will force Grotto into a marathon.
 
1.  Sometimes Giant erupts during Grotto, and then Grotto quits during
Giant.  I know it's not terribly common, but it does happen, for example
twice recently, on May 14 and May 24, as well as other times in the past.
 
2.  I mentioned the 3 cases in 2004 when Giant erupted 2-3 hours into a
Grotto eruption that turned out to be a marathon.  Did we know for sure it
was going into marathon before Giant erupted?  No.  But a marathon was very
much overdue each time.  On August 2, there had been 7 normal Grottos since
the last marathon, and on October 11, 6 normal Grottos.  In other words, we
were very much looking for Grotto to have a marathon both of those times
(and also on July 15, though I wasn't there to see it myself).
 
Is there something statistically that distinguishes between the Giant
eruptions Tom mentions that "forced" Grotto into marathons, and the Giant
eruptions that occurred while a *normal* Grotto was in progress?
 
Thanks!
 
--Tara Cross
fanandmortar at hotmail.com



Latest information on the Kamchatka landslide

http//www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/06/07/europe/EU-GEN-Russia-Geyser-Valley.
php

Quote

However, geysers began to reappear after water, mud and debris went over the 
top of a dam formed by the landslide and the level of the lake pressing 
against it dropped by more than 16 feet (5 meters) and continued to fall, the 
WWF said in a statement.

Two geysers dubbed Vodopadnaya and Shel reappeared, "spewing water and steam 
skyward with all their former zeal," it said. A wall of geysers known as 
Vitrazh — meaning stained-glass window — reappeared completely, and a geyser 
known as Malachite Grotto was also re-emerging from the water.

End quote.
________________


Well I have finally caught up at home and decided it was time for a few
posts.  I don t have a lot of news other than to reinforce some of the
observations that others have posted.

Fountain group was a very interesting place to be.  Spasm was having
eruptions every 1-1.5 hours and durations were mostly 8-10 with some nice
bursts over head height.  I did see a couple of eruptions that lasted >20m
which went into overflow but most eruptions never overflowed.  Every
eruption of Fountain I saw had Spasm empty.  Fountain either erupted with
no water or with a little in the bottom of the crater but rocks were always
visible in the crater.  Fountain durations were 30-35 minutes long.

Mornings Thief was active in most eruptions when the wind cooperated for me
to see it.  There were mostly 2 bursts (although Scott recently reported
one with 3 bursts).  The bursts were anywhere from 1 to 18 minutes into
Fountains eruption.

Clepsydra paused after all but 1 Fountain eruption (I waited to see if it
paused after 7 eruptions) and the pauses lasted 4-6 minutes, 7 to 14
minutes after Fountain quit.  The one eruption that Clepsydra did not stop,
Clepsydra was very weak during Fountain and looked like it might stop at
any time.  But after Fountain quit it just kept going.

At Norris there was some water in Ledge finger vents.  Pearl was full but
inactive.  The UNNG across the boardwalk from Pearl was much quieter than
last year with boiling from one vent less than a foot.  Vixen was gurgling
but very dry so I don t think it was having eruptions.  I saw one nice
eruption of Fireball which I have not seen for a couple of years.  Duration
of the bigger stuff was 7 minutes, followed by 18m of splashing.  Constant
was highly variable with intervals of 10-83 minutes with mostly 1 burst
eruptions.  Arsenic had frequent small eruptions that lasted less than a
minute each.

I watched Veteran one day and noticed it needed a much higher water level
to have a major eruption than I remember in prior years.  It covered the
three large beaded rocks in the front of the pool (which is all it used to
need) and then the square one on the back left and the pointed rock near
the front of the crater before finally erupting.  The major activity was
very strong, having a 2 minute major, then a minute later another major,
then a major that lasted about 20 minutes with declining power.  One day I
watched the water level slowly rise over an 8 hour period so the interval
was very long that day.

There was a lot of water in Steamboats minors, frequent heavy play out of
both vents but it appeared to be disorganized to me.  There was a constant
stream from the south vent to the bridge and a trickle visible in the North
vent channel at the lower platform.

That s it for now until I go through my notes.

Graham Meech.

Moderator Comment

I just confirmed that the archives are not presently available.  I
don't know why they disappeared at this time, but we are in the process
of major network changes.  Tomorrow, I'll try to find out what has
happened.

The reason for major network changes are several, but the one that
directly affects the mailing list is that our host organization, Walla
Walla College, will become Walla Walla University on September 1.  For
the mailing list, the impact is that the email address will change to
geysers at wallawalla.edu  sometime during the next week or two.  You
will receive specific information soon.

Most regrettably, we will not be able to maintain both addresses at the
same time.  So, over night, we'll have a new address and everthing sent
to the old address will bounce.

Carlton Cross
Moderator