[Geysers] Giant numbers game
  
  
   TSBryan at aol.com
  
  
   TSBryan at aol.com
  
  
  
   Mon Aug 28 19:57:09 PDT 2006
  
  
  
  
  
  
  The next eruption of Giant Geyser will take place on September 8, 2006 at  
2142. Precisely. Yes.
 
Here's how I know this. Starting with the eruption of November 2, 2006  
(prior to which all intervals were many days long), Giant has largely been  bimodal 
in its action (as you clearly see on the charts I've been sending out).  So, 
eliminating that stretch in April and early May, when the geyser was clearly  
in some very different mode of action, and using 10 hours as the cutoff 
between  modes, Giant has had:
 
Short mode (intervals 6-10 days)
number = 15
mean = 7.416 days = 7d 09h 59m
 
Long mode (intervals greater than 10.0 days)
number = 13
mean = 12d 09h 59m
 
(yes, the 09h 59m is correct for both means, honest ! )
 
The next interval should be a long mode, so it is simple addition that  
yields the September 8 date and time.
 
Scott Bryan
 
P.S. Take all these intervals, short plus long, then their mean is 9d 17h  
42m.
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