[Geysers] Giant numbers game
TSBryan at aol.com
TSBryan at aol.com
Mon Aug 28 19:57:09 PDT 2006
The next eruption of Giant Geyser will take place on September 8, 2006 at
2142. Precisely. Yes.
Here's how I know this. Starting with the eruption of November 2, 2006
(prior to which all intervals were many days long), Giant has largely been bimodal
in its action (as you clearly see on the charts I've been sending out). So,
eliminating that stretch in April and early May, when the geyser was clearly
in some very different mode of action, and using 10 hours as the cutoff
between modes, Giant has had:
Short mode (intervals 6-10 days)
number = 15
mean = 7.416 days = 7d 09h 59m
Long mode (intervals greater than 10.0 days)
number = 13
mean = 12d 09h 59m
(yes, the 09h 59m is correct for both means, honest ! )
The next interval should be a long mode, so it is simple addition that
yields the September 8 date and time.
Scott Bryan
P.S. Take all these intervals, short plus long, then their mean is 9d 17h
42m.
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