[Geysers] Regarding Fan and Mortar

[Freund, Udo]

Isn't the concept of geyser gazing to gather and disseminate data in
order to promote greater understanding?  So, why bicker over slightly
dissimilar events?  Shouldn't we be looking for the greatest number of
commonalities?  Nevertheless, thanks for sharing the info.
 
Udo Freund 

-----Original Message-----
From: geysers-bounces at wwc.edu [mailto:geysers-bounces at wwc.edu] On Behalf
Of TSBryan at aol.com
Sent: Sunday, August 22, 2004 3:39 PM
To: geysers at wwc.edu
Subject: [Geysers] Regarding Fan and Mortar



	I shall let readers determine what is more important, subtle
detail or general facts, but I feel that I must be allowed to respond to
the comments made by Lynn Stephens to my report about Saturday's Fan and
Mortar eruption. In any case, Lynn argues that that Fan and Mortar
eruption was not a "carbon copy" of the eruption of Thursday, August 19,
citing "...some, at least subtle, differences between the two starts."
	 
	Well, picky is as picky does. Somebody who evidently saw both
eruptions -- perhaps it was Barry Leedy, but I'm not certain of that --
made a statement that I at least interpreted as "carbon copy." Maybe it
was something akin to "essentially identical." Whatever, the carbon copy
process (for those who don't remember it !) never did produce exact
replicas of an original -- there were always a few smudges and such. In
dealing with these eruptions of F&M, I certainly did not mean that there
were no differences between them. However, too, I believe the
differences to have been so slight as to make the posted comments inane.
	 
	One important fact, for example, is that Angle Vent did go into
the loud steam phase during the lock. It was long-lasting during the
preliminary activity to both eruptions. That it briefly (evidently, very
brief) went back into water phase on Thursday and did not do so on
Saturday seems awfully unimportant to me. The fact is that the two steam
phases were __ highly similar __.
	 
	Main Vent evidently required a few more and _maybe_ somewhat
stronger surges to trigger the Thursday eruption than it did on
Saturday. Wheee. Both eruptions were in fact triggered by Main Vent
surging and, "somebody" did indeed orally state the (paraphrased
equivalent, no doubt): "That's what it did on Thursday." Who, really,
cares exactly how many surges there were? The trigger was __  highly
similar __.
	 
	Frying Pan Vent on Thursday was _maybe_ (quote I ... may have
missed it. unquote) not on before the surges on Thursday. On Saturday,
it came on less than a minute before the surges, and then only weakly
so. In fact, it might have been on on Thursday and in any case the two
episodes were __  highly similar  __.
	 
	Both eruptions happened at the end of Fan Vent locks, one of
more than 10 minutes and one more than 11 minutes. Both near or at
record-setting. __  Highly similar  __.
	 
	Even within this season, people (including Lynn) have begun
packing up their things to leave the area if an eruption had not started
within 25 minutes of a River Vent start. Here, we have both 26 minutes
and 33 minutes and -- gee -- eruptions happened. Both historically
overly-long. __  Highly similar  __.
	 
	In the above time frame, supposedly the only way that F&M could
possibly start to erupt was via Upper Mortar surging. But here, or so I
was told, on Thursday (I was told) and on Saturday (as I observed
myself) there was no-zero-zip action in Mortar, Upper or Lower, during
Fan's lock. Mortar had, for all intents beyond being part of the system,
nothing to do with the start of F&M on either date. __ Highly similar
__.
	 
	Lynn cites the difference between 26 minutes (Thursday) and 33
minutes (Saturday) from River Vent on to eruption time as being a
quantifiable 25% difference. OK. I am so often glad that I am not a
mathematician, nor a statistician. Bearing in mind that here we are
dealing only with the minutes and not the seconds, this difference
between 25% and the actual 26.92307% is 7.69228%, a value I've
repeatedly been told would be highly significant. And so........oh,
shoot, for get it........
	 
	The important point is that Fan and Mortar have had two
consecutive eruptions that occurred during event cycles that involved __
highly similar __ events. That's what matters. No doubt they'll be
different next time, since "they are geysers."
	 
	Sorry if I got a bit hot, but gee whiz...... how about if next
year we all calculate Old Faithful's average interval to the 1/1000
second -- that's what Hutchinson did 30 years ago, and surely we're more
accurate today!
	 
	Scott Bryan

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